Founders are likely to worship on the altar of perseverance and grit. In any case, startup lore is marked by “slow-bake” tales like Roblox’s or (extra lately) Figma’s journey, the place it took years of patiently grinding it out to get to that inflection level and outsized end result. The aversion to quitting is so sturdy that that merely saying the phrase is nearly like uttering “Macbeth” in a theater — even the point out may invite misfortune. As an alternative, we go for softer euphemisms, like “pivoting,” “iterating,” or “getting in a special course.”
So when Annie Duke got down to write her newest guide, titled “Give up: The Energy of Understanding When to Stroll Away,” she knew she was tackling a sensitive topic. “I’m on a mission to rehabilitate the phrase, which has been given the Voldemort therapy. However whereas my guide known as ‘Give up,’ by no means do I wish to suggest that grit is not an necessary trait or a muscle price growing,” she says. “Grit will get you to stay to issues which are worthwhile, but additionally very onerous. And many of the issues that we do which are worthwhile and can change the world are going to have durations which are actually troublesome. The place we go incorrect is in considering that grit is simply good — interval.”
Earlier this yr, we formally launched Duke as First Spherical’s Particular Accomplice for Resolution Science, sharing her decision-making recommendation for founders proper right here on The Assessment. As a marketing consultant, bestselling writer and former poker professional, there are few who’re higher geared up to show founders concerning the artwork of understanding when to carry ‘em, and understanding when to fold ‘em.
“Once we have a look at success tales that had been a very long time within the making, there’s a temptation to say sticking to it’s simply good — full cease. However the issue is that the grit that enables us to energy by means of may even get us to stay to issues that aren’t worthwhile,” says Duke. “Success comes from sticking to the stuff that’s working and quitting the remaining. That’s why quitting is a ability that you must get good at.”
It is true that with a purpose to achieve success at one thing, it’s a must to keep on with it — however that does not essentially imply that sticking to one thing makes you profitable.
On this unique interview, Duke unpacks the psychology behind why it’s so onerous to stroll away. She flags the cognitive biases to watch out for, from how id can turn into enmeshed in firm constructing, to the widespread tendency to make incremental adjustments as an alternative of taking extra drastic measures.
Duke shares a set of psychological fashions that can assist you strategy essential selections with a clearer mindset, sharing focused methods for goal-setting, evaluating progress, and looking for outdoors counsel. Her tactical recommendation is useful for all the massive forks within the highway, whether or not it’s quitting your job, firing an early worker, abandoning a product, altering your go-to-market technique, or sadly, shutting down your startup.
Want to pay attention alongside as an alternative? Try our latest In Depth podcast episode with Duke right here.
Setbacks come in several stripes. Within the startup context, sunsetting a product characteristic that flopped pales compared to the troublesome option to wind down the enterprise altogether. However take the “pivot.” Regardless of its scrappy, entrepreneurial connotations, it’s a give up in disguise, says Duke. “I do not suppose we must always disguise behind the time period pivoting.”
We have a tendency to consider quitting as leaving the court docket. However pivoting remains to be quitting.
“The concept of quitting is such a bitter tablet to swallow that we now have to take it with a spoonful of sugar,” she writes in her guide. “Stripped of its unfavorable connotation, quitting is merely the selection to cease one thing that you’ve began. We should cease considering that we have to wrap the thought of quitting in bubble wrap and serve it smooth.”
She factors to a few examples: “Stewart Butterfield was growing a web based sport after which pivoted to constructing Slack — that is quitting. He give up growing a sport,” she says. “Or take Notion, the place the founders have a dramatic story of throwing out the code, downsizing the workforce, and rebuilding the product from scratch. The important thing takeaway from these tales is that they weren’t simply pounding their head in opposition to a product that wasn’t working.”
In these dramatic pivots, the place issues appeared to be on the point of failure after which founders rise from these ashes into success, there’s numerous quitting that is often occurring.
However the line between when to maintain at it and when to throw within the towel isn’t often clear-cut. Right here’s why so many founders go for the previous, even after they shouldn’t: “You’ve got this broader purpose of making a profitable startup, and that is what you are abandoning while you shut an organization down. You’re admitting which you can’t flip it round anymore. That is the second that it’s a must to say, ‘It was failing earlier than, however now I have failed,’” says Duke.
“Pivots are simpler for us to deal with as a result of we nonetheless have that likelihood to make the corporate work and obtain our purpose of constructing a startup — even when we now have to desert the product that we had been initially growing.”
So long as that likelihood exists, it’s going to often really feel too early to surrender the trigger.
It’s a well-known scene: A startup’s go-to-market movement simply isn’t working. They’ll’t appear to get prospects to signal on. However the founder insists that it’s a hiring challenge — if they might simply get the proper salesperson on board, then all of the items of the puzzle would snap into place.
“As an outsider, you may see that it’s rather more sophisticated. You might want to change the entire GTM movement, and even change the product itself drastically. And exterior advisors usually have this sense of, ‘Why can’t they clearly see what I can see?’” says Duke.
The difficulty stems from the expectations we place on our future selves. “All of us count on that if we see alerts that what we’re doing isn’t working, clearly we’ll then change gears. That is the instinct that allows us to make selections underneath uncertainty within the first place,” she says. “When you concentrate on which product you’re going to develop, or the GTM movement you’ll guess on, you’re making these selections underneath tons of uncertainty. There’s numerous stuff we don’t know. And there’s going to be data discovery alongside the way in which. We consider that after we uncover that data, we’ll certainly give up one thing that’s not working and alter course.”
Actually, the alternative tends to be true.
Once we get alerts from the world which are unfavorable, that the factor we’re doing is not working, we really escalate our dedication to no matter it’s that we’re doing.
Duke flags a couple of of the driving forces behind this impulse to double down:
Cause #1: Sunk value fallacy
“Richard Thaler first recognized this impact. Once we’ve put numerous effort into one thing, we do not wish to change course as a result of we predict that then we’ll have wasted the entire time or the hassle. For those who purchase a inventory at $50 and it is now buying and selling at $40, you do not wish to lose $10. However in fact that $10 is already misplaced — it is already sunk,” says Duke.
As an alternative, the query ought to be: Is it worthwhile going ahead? “So usually founders suppose, ‘If I cease now, I am going to have wasted a yr and a half of my time, my workers’ time, my traders’ cash. However do you wish to waste the subsequent minute? Persevering with to allow them to plug away at one thing the place their fairness is not price something is what’s losing their time.”
Begin desirous about waste as a forward-looking downside, not a backward-looking one.
Cause #2: Established order bias
“As soon as we’ve established the established order, just like the GTM technique that we’re presently executing on, there’s a bias that makes it very onerous for us to modify,” says Duke. “Once we dump that go-to-market movement and attempt to develop one thing else, if that new plan doesn’t work out, there’s an asymmetry to how we course of that remorse. We really feel it rather more keenly after we begin one thing new. So we might choose to make incremental adjustments, hoping we will nonetheless flip it round.”
We’re rather more tolerant of the unhealthy outcomes that come from sticking to the plan than from switching to one thing new.
Cause #3: Founder id
“If you do issues which are outdoors of the mainstream, they turn into a part of your id — which is especially true for founders. And strolling away out of your id is so extremely onerous,” she says. “The toughest factor to give up is who you’re. You’ll be extra more likely to reject the info quite than to replace your beliefs, even when the proof is obvious.”
This compounds over time. “The extra that we put into one thing, the extra our id will get tied up with what we’re doing, the extra endowed we’re to it. That makes it more durable and more durable to give up. You’re employed on one thing for six months, which makes you extra more likely to proceed engaged on it since you’ve already put six months into it. That causes you to place one other yr into it. And so forth, and so forth,” says Duke. “It turns into a self-reinforcing cycle.”
There is a large distinction between shutting your organization down after six months and shutting it down after 9 years. The longer that we proceed to do one thing, the extra cognitive particles builds up — and the more durable it’s to desert.
Cause #4: Tendency to grade objectives as cross/fail.
There is no such thing as a scarcity of goal-setting frameworks to select from. However Duke finds that almost all of them have the identical downside. “There’s plenty of proof that purpose setting is sweet. I am not going to argue with the physique of proof that claims when you create very clear, particular objectives it helps individuals to realize outcomes extra rapidly,” she says.
However there’s a sneaky draw back that we frequently overlook. “A lady was working the 2019 London marathon and he or she began experiencing ache in her legs round mile three. After which, at mile 8, her fibula snapped. And this is the wonderful factor — she saved working. She completed the marathon on a damaged leg,” says Duke. “This may sound type of nutty. However 4 individuals in that 2019 London Marathon broke one thing and continued to the end line. Only a fast Google search will let you know that tales like this are extremely widespread. Individuals proceed to run, which extends restoration time after the race and will influence their means to ever run once more sooner or later,” she says.
“As soon as we set that end line, we grade it pass-fail. For those who give up after mile 20, you failed. For those who run 26.2 miles, you handed. Regardless that working 20 miles is healthier than not having tried in any respect — cognitively, not having tried in any respect feels higher to us than having to give up. For those who’re 300 yards from the summit of Everest, however you don’t really summit the mountain — you failed. By no means thoughts that you simply climbed greater than nearly any human being ever has.”
The issue with objectives is that after we set a end line, they’re graded pass-fail. And we’ll barrel towards that end line, come what might. The purpose itself turns into a hard and fast object, regardless that the situations have modified.
Founders will acknowledge that this phenomenon applies outdoors of bodily feats, in fact. “If no one’s shopping for the product, and we clearly have not achieved product-market match and it would not appear to be it is on the horizon, we’ll preserve tinkering anyway. We ignore the alerts that we’re off observe. As a result of we now have a end line, and it is graded pass-fail,” says Duke.
“One of many issues that give startups a bonus is that they are exploring in a manner that established firms aren’t capable of. Enterprises have an innovation downside. Startups are exploratory. However what we now have to appreciate is that the very act of setting a purpose makes you turn into increasingly enterprise-like. You cease exploring different avenues, methods, merchandise, and motions that you may be pursuing,” she says.
Her recommendation: Get particular concerning the “unlesses.” “I will run this marathon until I break my leg in the midst of it — after which I am going to cease. This appears foolish, as a result of, clearly, we predict, if we break our leg we’ll cease. However you are not going to cease when you’re in the midst of it. So after we’re setting objectives, we now have to set these unlesses upfront, too” says Duke.
Targets are nice — so long as you’ve gotten thought upfront about what would make it so that you simply wouldn’t pursue that purpose anymore.
So how can founders lower by means of these cognitive challenges and make the fitting determination? How will you get higher at recognizing these situations within the second, saving your self heartache and dead-ends? Duke shares 5 methods for disciplining your decision-making and getting extra comfy with quitting:
Technique #1: Prepare the monkey earlier than you construct the pedestal.
“My key advice is that that you must perceive whether or not or not you must proceed as rapidly as doable. And the mannequin that I like to make use of for this comes from Astro Teller, who’s the CEO or ‘Captain of Moonshots’ at Google X,” says Duke.
“This group is attempting to do tremendous revolutionary issues which have a really excessive likelihood of failure. They’re going after big non-incremental discoveries, they usually wish to get these large world altering concepts to commercialization in 5 to 10 years. However even at Google, they’ve restricted sources. You solely have a sure period of time, consideration and cash which you can dedicate to issues,” she says. “And so Astro Teller is attempting to know if a venture is price pursuing or not, particularly compared to all the opposite issues that they might pursue. And he’s attempting to get to that call as rapidly as doable to cut back these sunk prices and id points.”
Teller depends on an uncommon psychological mannequin to get there. “Think about that you simply’ve determined that you simply wish to prepare a monkey to juggle flaming torches whereas standing on a pedestal within the city sq.. For those who might accomplish that, you’ll make plenty of cash. However while you’re approaching this concept, you must not construct the pedestal first. As an alternative you must just be sure you can really prepare the monkey to juggle the flaming torches,” Duke says.
“As a result of that is the bottleneck. There isn’t any level in constructing the pedestal if you have not discovered whether or not or not you may really get the monkey to juggle the flaming torches. That is the unknown. You’ll be able to actually construct a pedestal — in a pinch, you may flip a milk crate the wrong way up,” she says. “Teller says to sort out the onerous half first, as a result of every part else is simply going to create an phantasm of progress.”
For those who can’t remedy for the toughest half, the half with essentially the most uncertainty, there’s no level in doing the rest.
There’s one other downside with beginning with the pedestal. “The time, effort and cash that you simply put into constructing the pedestal begins to create these sunk prices. Now your id is extra wrapped up in what you are doing — regardless that it is not creating true progress — which makes it a lot more durable so that you can really give up when you determine which you can’t get the monkey to juggle these torches,” says Duke. “As an alternative you’ll say, ‘I simply want to do that another factor, I am so near the breakthrough.’”
For an instance that does not contain primates, take into account the California high-speed rail system. “The concept was to attach San Francisco and Silicon Valley to LA and San Diego. A $9 billion bond was authorized again in 2008, and the projections on the time had been that it could take about $33 billion to finish by 2020. They authorized some observe between Madera and Fresno, which was the inside of the road on flat land,” says Duke.
“The issue with this strategy is that any observe that you simply construct on flat land is, in essence, going to be a pedestal — since you already know which you can construct it. It seems that in relation to the California Bullet Prepare, there are literally a few monkeys which are actually onerous to determine. These monkeys are two mountain ranges: the Tehachapi Mountains and the Diablo Vary’s Pacheco Go,” she says. “And there are large engineering issues to attempt to determine the way you blast by means of these mountains in a protected and price efficient manner in order that it is possible for you to to finish the road. It’s 2022 they usually’ve nonetheless hardly constructed any observe. And the most recent value projections are $105 billion, they usually nonetheless haven’t discovered the best way to remedy for the mountains.”
That is, in fact, an excessive instance, however phrases like “low hanging fruit” are thrown round on a regular basis when constructing merchandise and corporations. “Be sure to’re not simply amassing particles with out really fixing for the onerous factor first,” says Duke.
I haven’t got any downside with tackling the low hanging fruit. Ultimately it’s a must to. However you higher just be sure you remedy for the bottleneck first. As a result of each little bit of low hanging fruit that you simply sort out creates an phantasm of progress and sunk value issues.
Technique #2: Mood your projections by counting on base charges.
“For any particular person founder engaged on an issue, the likelihood of failure is de facto excessive. There are founders who pound the identical pavement and it simply takes a very long time earlier than they hit gold, versus others who pound the pavement however in the end work out that it’s not working,” says Duke. And founders are an optimistic bunch. Even when development has stalled out or the product has but to seek out its footing, it’s simple to persuade your self that you simply’ll nonetheless be in that choose few, that small group that does go the gap.
“The founder is only one particular person caught in their very own perspective,” says Duke. Thus, a lot of her recommendation facilities round broadening that window and pulling in exterior views. One method is grounding your self in base charges. “Right here’s a easy manner to consider base charges: How usually does one thing occur within the scenario that you simply’re contemplating?” Duke shares a couple of examples:
Inventory market: “How usually, yr over yr, in any given fiscal yr is the inventory market up from the place it began originally of the yr? Relying on the way you calculate it, I consider someplace round 70-75% of the time the inventory market is up. So it doesn’t matter if over the previous 5 years it was up for all of these years. The subsequent yr, it ought to be up about three-quarters of the time — until one thing important has modified.”
Valuations. “If the highest SaaS firms are traditionally valued about 16-20X income, after which impulsively there’s one yr the place they’re being valued at 40-60X income, that will be odd in comparison with the bottom price,” she says. “Now, that does not imply that that valuation is unfaithful. It simply signifies that one thing needs to be considerably totally different within the setting, like how the valuation for retail firms was impacted by the shift from brick and mortar to on-line.”
Hurricanes. “It would not make any sense to look traditionally over the past 100 years at both the power or the frequency of hurricanes, as a result of we all know that there are large, latest shifts in common temperature and the way heat the ocean is, making hurricanes stronger and extra frequent now. And so these base charges would not maintain as a result of one thing important has modified concerning the world.”
However how is this useful to a founder attempting to evaluate their startup’s prospects? “Individuals make predictions and forecasts by desirous about them in relation to their very own expertise. The bottom price asks you to take an additional step. Take a look at the data you’ve gotten, take into consideration the issue you are attempting to unravel, after which attempt to determine how that usually goes — earlier than you begin to consider your personal expertise. The explanation that it’s a must to do that’s as a result of our perspective on the world is definitely fairly riddled with cognitive bias,” says Duke.
Listed here are a couple of of those biases that base charges might help fight:
Availability bias: “For instance, if I had been to ask you to estimate the likelihood of a terrorist assault on U.S. soil, your estimate can be a lot greater than what the precise base price is,” says Duke. “The explanation it simply is that it is simpler so that you can recall, as a result of these issues are typically on the information, and so we take into consideration these as extra frequent than they really are as a result of ease of recall turns into a proxy for our judgments of frequency.”
The planning fallacy. “If I am attempting to determine how lengthy a venture will take, I are likely to underestimate how lengthy it may take. So I ought to have a look at the bottom price for that.”
The phantasm of management. “We predict we now have extra management over outcomes than we do. That is much like the gambler’s fallacy, the place we predict there is a greater chance of issues occurring than they really will.”
“If we wish to really self-discipline these cognitive biases in order that our forecasts, predictions and selections are extra correct, probably the greatest methods to do this is to look out and see what is going on on on the earth,” says Duke.
“Returning to valuations, I heard lots of people in the summertime of 2021 speaking about how the world is totally different. They had been seeing different founders elevate at these loopy valuations. However until there’s some form of paradigm shift, like that Walmart to Amazon shift, trying up the historic base price for valuations for firms helps to self-discipline that want that we now have to suppose that one thing particular is happening,” she says. “It isn’t that one thing particular is not ever happening. However you a minimum of need to disprove that the bottom price wouldn’t maintain in that scenario.”
Technique #3: Calculate anticipated worth.
For those who’re weighing whether or not to depart the sector or stick it out in hopes of pivoting your manner by means of, right here’s Duke’s litmus check: Give up when your anticipated worth goes unfavorable compared to different issues that you may be doing.
“Once we begin something, there’s some form of anticipated worth which you can calculate. Primarily you may consider it as: Does the upside outweigh the draw back? When the upside is nice sufficient to outweigh the draw back, then we might say we’re successful to the choice — we’re optimistic in anticipated worth,” she says. “To be clear, this doesn’t suggest that the corporate’s by no means going to fail. It signifies that when you had been to make that call time and again, there can be sufficient upside to compensate for the draw back that is related to it.”
On the flip aspect, when the anticipated worth is unfavorable, you should stroll away. “However we will broaden that to different conditions. Say you’re gaining floor to your purpose, however there are different issues that you may be doing that are related to much more upside. So then it could behoove you to modify to the factor that has much more upside. Stewart Butterfield’s sport earlier than Slack is the instance right here,” says Duke.
“They had been gaining plenty of prospects and doing an enormous advertising push, but it surely regarded like they had been most likely going to interrupt even inside 31 months, provided that they might maintain the expansion. What Stewart realized was that they might get to a spot the place they had been going to generate income, but it surely was by no means going to be a venture-scale enterprise. The anticipated worth was most certainly optimistic, but it surely simply wasn’t sufficiently big in comparison with what he felt like he might accomplish.”
Remind your self: Life’s too quick to be engaged on one thing that is not price your time.
Technique #4: Herald a quitting coach.
“If you’re really going through questions of ‘Am I going to only throw this product out or am I going to vary my technique?’ it is onerous to get these selections proper. Among the finest methods you may make use of with a purpose to get higher at making these selections to give up is definitely to get anyone from the surface that will help you,” says Duke.
“Within the guide, I discuss Ron Conway, who actually prides himself on teaching founders to give up. Individuals can be shocked as a result of he has clearly helped individuals grit it out, to nice success. However one of many issues he is proudest of is that when he sees that an organization isn’t going to work, he feels an obligation to assist free that founder up to allow them to go work on one thing wonderful,” she says. “It is onerous for us to get to these selections for ourselves, however we will usually see them fairly nicely from the surface.”
Outdoors advisors have a a lot greater information set than a person founder. They’ve entry to the bottom charges, they perceive the reference class. They’ll determine when it’s a useless firm strolling, versus one which’s simply going by means of onerous occasions that they’ll push by means of.
“Additionally they don’t have the identical sunk value fallacy as a founder who’s been constructing for a yr and a half. So the worth is that they are not in it with you,” says Duke. “They’ll see clearly that in case you have workers which are working for little or no money comp and many fairness, that the second that you simply decide that fairness is not price their time, you must allow them to go.”
Technique #5: Set (particular) kill standards.
For those who’re struggling to objectively consider your organization’s manner ahead, lean on this methodology: “There’s all kinds of benchmarks which you can set for your self of what that you must see occur inside 1 / 4 inside two or three quarters. These benchmarks turn into what I name kill standards, actually standards for killing a venture or altering your thoughts or reducing your losses. For those who miss them, it means you’re going to give up,” she says.
“For those who’re pre-revenue, that is likely to be concerning the product: How are exams going? What’s your means to rent and get different individuals excited? Are you able to inform the story in a compelling manner that will get individuals to wish to offer you cash?” says Duke.
“Reviewing these standards on an everyday cadence with an outdoor advisor will assist mitigate your tendency to say, ‘No, I do know I can flip round. I can tweak the messaging or rent a brand new salesperson.’ That is the technique that Ron Conway makes use of: ‘You are a superb individual, I’ve little question you may flip round. However what does turning it round appear to be inside what time?’ A easy method to develop kill standards is with ‘states and dates,” she says. “‘If by (date), I’ve/haven’t (reached a specific state), I’ll give up.’”
Duke takes us by means of an instance of how she would push a founder to get extra particular right here: “Say the benchmark is producing internet new ARR — how lengthy would we now have to attend to see that change happen? If it’s a protracted gross sales cycle, your tendency as a founder is likely to be to say it’ll take six months. However the advice-giver might say, ‘Nicely, it would take six months to shut new enterprise, however you ought to be seeing adjustments on the high of the funnel if this new salesperson is working. Let’s say that can take a month. What does it appear to be with quantitative information — what are the numbers that we’ll see there?’ Then you may conform to revisit in a month, and when you’re not seeing progress, then one thing drastic wants to vary — then you definately actually do want to consider quitting or pivoting.”
Primarily, that you must set up a decent timeline and determine the main indicators upfront. “What I wish to keep away from is it is six months from now they usually nonetheless have not generated new ARR, however they’re telling me once more that they ‘simply must tweak issues,’” she says.
Get to the main indicators and truly write down the benchmarks. What are the issues that we’ll see which are going to inform us that issues have rotated throughout the subsequent month?
You too can apply this strategy at each degree of the corporate. Take this gross sales instance: “Think about that you’re pursuing a gross sales lead that was generated by means of an RFP. It is six months later and also you’ve misplaced the deal. Wanting again, you notice there have been early alerts that you weren’t going to win. What had been they?” says Duke. “Possibly you had a couple of conferences they usually could not get a call maker within the room. Possibly the RFP matched a competitor a little bit too carefully. Possibly they only needed to speak about pricing within the first assembly and didn’t even need a demo. They’re most likely attempting simply to make use of you as a stalking horse to beat anyone else down on worth,” she says.
“If you’re really within the scenario it’s onerous to see it. If you’re in the midst of a deal, you proceed to pursue it and demand which you can nonetheless win. Assembling the factors upfront might help you see if it’s not a deal that’s price pursuing actively or bringing it additional into the funnel. You’ll be able to have totally different ranges, like computerized kills or ones the place that you must hunt down additional data earlier than making a call.”
How will you let you know’re making progress in your quitting expertise as a founder? What are the symptoms that you simply’ve taken Duke’s phrases to coronary heart?
“There are some floor alerts. For instance, you’d get environment friendly at letting individuals go who aren’t good matches. As quickly as you begin considering, ‘Possibly this individual is not a great match,’ you’ll sit down with them and work out what you count on to see by way of turning it round. And you’ll then revisit these main indicators in a short time,” she says.
“In a deeper manner, this sort of considering can be inculturated throughout the firm. If you begin a brand new venture, you’ll be desirous about making forecasts, inspecting your choices and giving your greatest guess of what the long run may maintain. You’d be writing these issues down so you may return and revisit the accuracy of these forecasts,” says Duke. “You’d write down your kill standards and make commitments broadly throughout the workforce so you may really act on them. Then when you’re in flight, you’ll get on an everyday cadence of revisiting these objectives.”
To recap, Duke shares some questions for founders to make use of for these check-ins:
Are these objectives nonetheless the fitting objectives to pursue, given what we’re attempting to realize?
What are the opposite choices? Are there artistic options to what we’re attempting to do?
How are we going to seek out out as rapidly as doable that the factor that we’re doing is not working?
If I think about it is six months from now and this venture has failed, what had been these early alerts or main indicators?
Are we really tackling the bottleneck, or are we retreating into pedestal constructing with a purpose to make ourselves really feel higher?
What does success actually appear to be? What do I count on to see occur?
Is that this simply onerous or is it onerous and never worthwhile?